I read this as a discussion of the future view of cannabis in N America. So, here goes...
I don’t know about the pill thing but you do raise an interesting point about the interest level of cannabis. If I’m not mistaken, following prohibition, there was a sharp decline in alcohol consumption in general; due to its normalization. No longer was it part of the fashion to flaut the law in a speakeasy or necessary to brew in your basement. I wonder how popular cannabis would be if ALL of the stigma and legal consequences are removed. Just as kids revel in drinking prior to turning 21 but tend to ‘mellow out’ once they reach the age of legal maturity and buying alcohol is ‘no big deal.’
Right now, I feel like cannabis is experiencing an uptick in popularity on two fronts: First, it’s proving to have some medicinal value; or, at least, that’s what people perceive. Certainly, calling it “medicine” has been a HUGE bonus for the legalization movement. Second, it’s in the news with regularity and folks have either been enjoying legal cannabis or are just getting the opportunity OR their areas are considering
some form of legalization or normalization; whether it be THC products or even just CBD products, for now. It’s an exciting time!! But what would it look like, let’s say, if every state in the US legalized recreational and medical cannabis or followed Canada’s example and simply legalized out favorite flower - what would it look like 5-10 years later?
I think it’ll look like beer in one way. It’d be a 3 tier market. MOST people will buy one of 4-5 big brands’ various offerings available everywhere in some form. Then, there will be the micro brew equivalent in some major player connoisseur providers and,finally, there will be the home-brew hobby growers. I believe there will be a medical market that will include a sterile assortment of flavorless products that deliver THC to patients with conditions that science can find hard, cold proof of THC’s efficacy in treating the symptoms or underlying disease. Not anecdotal stoner science proof, but clinical trial proof.
The real question will be how much recreational use there will be. Here, I’m circling back to my early-on question about the long term popularity of cannabis, in a post prohibition world. I don’t think it’s going to be as popular as it is currently or as it will be until prohibition falls in the US. Mainly because it’s just not as social as alcohol. I know some die-hard stoners will disagree but you can nurse a drink for a long time and easily moderate your drinking. If you drive to a Super Bowl party with your wife and kids you can sit around for 3-4 hours nursing drinks, being a part of the social activity, and still be clear-minded and LEGAL (and safe) to drive home. Cannabis doesn’t offer the same thing. Of course, you can smoke early and be sober on the drive home but you can’t smoke up until the time you leave and still be sober. Getting stoned is a short term activity with a long term effect that doesn’t lend itself to a traditional social activity; and it’s not just the effect that makes alcohol a party favor, it’s the act of drinking, the ritual, that’s equally important! That’s why people usually don’t invite Joe-Bob who sits in a corner and slams vodka shot after shot until he passes out 45 minutes later to the party! The party is about a shared experience and ACTivity that can be drawn out over time. Also, the flavor of various alcohols lend themselves to enhancing other social functions. The most obvious being the drinking of wine with meals. Cannabis doesn’t enjoy this same ability and, in my mind, doesn’t lend itself to the type of wide-spread use that we see with alcohol. Even in a post prohibition world. Not to mention, the fact that the most social method of cannabis use is SMOKING; which is not a particularly healthy activity. No doubt there are some major health risks to smoking cannabis long term. Particularly in large quantities. Of course it’s better than tobacco but that doesn’t mean it’s good for you; and breathing in anything besides clean air just can’t be all good. Perhaps there will be some discoveries, in the form of new products, that will make cannabis use a more social activity; but based on what I see today it’s not poised to threaten alcohol as the king of social activities.
So, what makes cannabis the talk of the town these days? Two words: “Legalization” and “New.” The prospect of a new and shiny toy has people exited. Whether you recently got it legalized or your looking at those places and anticipating it happening in your part of North America, it’s got cannabis in the forefront of your mind; and in the mind of your friends and neighbors and the news media! If cannabis gets legalized in the US (I mean the whole thing) and we give it some time I think the OP is right....things will look very different. Particularly the interest level outside the medicinal uses. There will always be flower but I believe the vape market will dominate and become the most common method of use because it’s just cleaner. It’s highly possible that we’ll see a rise in popularity of low(er) THC strains in an attempt to make it a more social activity. Maybe a low strength product could be consumed in a manner that would rival the control that’s possible with alcohol. I think the whole edible market and concentrates will be relegated to medical use; whether it be OTC sleeping meds or prescription anti-nausea medications. I’m looking out for some sort of regulation of TCH content and some standardization of THC levels as well as the labeling of those levels.
I think cannabis will be dominated by some large ag operations feeding a few big players like ‘Bud-Wiser” (Lol!) and a few lucky small farms feeding the connoisseur market because it won’t be the cash crop people once envisioned. As growers have seen on the west coast, once legalization occurs the price drops. If national legalization happens, the price per pound will drop incredibly low and only those farms that can afford to operate on a very thin profit margin will be able to survive. Legalization has its consequences, including those unintended and unfortunate ones.
Overall, I think we would see a drop in long-term demand for cannabis in a post prohibition world. At least from the level we see today. Canada will be a great test case in some ways. It’ll be interesting to see what the interest will be in 2 years, in 5 years and in 10 years among our neighbors to the north. It won’t be a tell-all because there will be loads of cannabis-tourism from the US that skews the results; but it’ll sure provide some great indicators. It’s a very interesting discussion to have. Thanks to
@MesaBoogie for bringing it up!
and just what were you smoking 
.
